Don't Count on Saudi Arabia for Oil Exports Says Citigroup Analysis.

Bloomberg's Businessweek (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-04/saudi-arabia-may-become-oil-importer-by-2030-citigroup-says) printed a report titled "Saudi Petrochemicals – The End of the MagicPorridge Pot?"

Based on Citigroup's152 pages long analysis of various companies in Saudi Arabia and the discussion of future oil export possibilities. The report finds:

1. Oil production will be constant at 12.5 million barrels per day (Mb/d) as expected.

2. Saudi Arabia generates 50% of its electricity using natural gas and 50% using oil products. They are using their own natural gas and oil production to do this. Saudi Arabia consumes all the natural gas that it produces and the domestic production is insufficient for their needs.

3. SaudiArabia's peak load is approaching 50,000 megawatts (MW) 21,000 MW in 2000. They calculate a need of 120,000 MW of electricity in 2030. Aside from electricity they need water from desalination of seawater to support populaton growth.

4. The Saudi authorities have plans to use nuclear and solar energy. By 2050 they plan: Nuclear energy 54,000 MW, concentrated solar 25,000 MW, photovoltaics 16,000 MW and wind power 9,000 MW.

5. Citigroup's conclusion: Saudi Arabia will not be an oil exporter in 2030. Electricity generation will increase at approximately the same rate as is occurring currently and that there will be delays in establishment of alternative sources of electricity.

"Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil producer (11.1mbpd) & exporter (7.7mbpd). It also consumes 25% of its production. Energy consumption per capita exceeds that of most industrialnations. Oil & its derivatives account for ~50% of Saudi's electricity production, used mostly (>50%) for residential use. Peak power demand is growing by ~8%/yr. Our analysis shows that if nothing changes Saudi may have no available oil for export by 2030." Citigroup

6. Saudi Arabia's domestic consumption of oil is increasing - and this is occurring in all the oil exporting nations. Some contend that the volume of oil available for importation by the OECD nations in 2020 will thus contract by half compared to what was available in 2005.